Markets, Prices, and Positions

Markets and events

A market is one tradable question with defined outcomes. An event groups related markets, such as several price thresholds for the same asset and period.

Markets in the same event can resolve independently. Read the rules for each position you trade.

Yes and No shares

For a standard two-outcome risk market with a 1 USDT payout per eligible share:

Final result	Payout per Yes share	Payout per No share
Yes	1 USDT	0 USDT
No	0 USDT	1 USDT

Special outcomes, if supported, follow the applicable market rules. Do not assume that cancellation means a refund of your purchase price.

How collateral supports payouts

In the conditional-token structure, one complete set contains one Yes share and one No share for the same condition. Creating that set locks 1 USDT of collateral. After ordinary binary resolution, its total payout is 1 USDT.

A complete set can also be merged to release its collateral where the relevant contract operation is supported. This is different from selling a single outcome on the order book and may not be exposed as an app action.

Full collateralization backs the defined contract payout. It does not guarantee the value of USDT, remove contract risk, or reimburse the holder's underlying investment losses.

What a price means

A share priced at 0.20 USDT costs 0.20 USDT and can pay 1 USDT if its outcome is confirmed at resolution. Traders often interpret that price as an approximately 20% market-implied probability for the defined risk event.

Market prices also reflect liquidity, spread, trading costs, participant incentives, and uncertainty. They are not verified probabilities or AI confidence scores.

Yes and No are complementary outcomes, but their independently quoted buy or sell prices do not have to add to exactly 1 USDT. The complete-set collateral relationship does not eliminate bid-ask spreads.

Position arithmetic

Let n be the number of shares purchased, p the average price in USDT, and F the total applicable costs.

Measure	Calculation
Purchase cost before other costs	n × p
Gross payout if the purchased outcome is confirmed	n × 1 USDT
Net return if the position receives a payout	n × (1 − p) − F
Net return if the position receives no payout	−n × p − F
Indicative value before resolution	n × current indicative price

Indicative value is not guaranteed sale proceeds. An actual exit depends on executable bids and available size.

Example: Buying 1,000 shares at 0.20 USDT costs 200 USDT. If the selected outcome is confirmed, the gross payout is 1,000 USDT and the net return is 800 USDT before other costs. If the selected outcome is not confirmed, the shares receive no payout and the 200 USDT purchase cost remains the capital at risk.